Kentucky #1? ....Slow down

by: Chris Spatola
@chris_spatola

October, 17 2013

It is a mystery to me why Kentucky seems to be the consensus pre-season number one for most outlets.  The Kentucky recruiting haul of five top-10 prospects certainly puts them on paper in a pre-season top-5, but to say that this group of speculative talent will start the season as the best team in the land is a bit of a stretch.  While John Calipari’s group is far more talented than the first round NIT team he had last year, this group is not as good as the class Kentucky had in 2012.  Not one of the guys in the class this year (Andrew and Aaron Harrison, Julius Randle, Dakari Johnson, James Young) is as good as either Anthony Davis or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. 

Kentucky’s class this year stands out more for its depth than it does one transcendent guy in the group – one game-changer.  Julius Randle has probably the greatest upside, but he won’t have nearly the game-changing impact that Anthony Davis had.  In addition, the talent supplementing Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist was much better than the talent returning for this year’s Wildcats.  Guys like Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones and Darius Miller all averaged double-figures in 2012.  The two returning holdovers for Kentucky this year, Alex Poythress and Willie Cauley-Stein, were underwhelming (at best) in their freshman seasons.  Understated about Kentucky’s championship run from two years ago was the chemistry that team had by the end of the season.  Roles were defined.  Kidd-Gilchrist and Davis didn’t need the ball to affect the game.  They played hard and set a defensive tone. 

No one is better than John Calipari at getting young talent to play together; yet, he would even admit it’s a process.  Sharing the basketball, defending together, communicating – these things take time for veteran teams, let alone a group of highly talented, unknown personalities.

Kentucky returns this year 22.3 points per game (31% of its offense) from last year’s squad.  Contrast that with Louisville (54.4ppg/73%) and Michigan State (62.1ppg/91%), both veteran-laden teams entering 2013-14.  It’s hard to imagine, at the very least to start the season, Kentucky’s matching the production, leadership, and talent of either of these teams. 

“We’re chasing perfection.  We’re chasing greatness,” Calipari said in a May press conference of his 2013-14 Wildcats.  “We’re chasing things that have never been done in the history of our game.  I don’t mind a little pressure.  I’ve had it my whole career.”

Kentucky will be good, maybe even Final-Four good.  But while Calipari may be accustomed to pressure, it will take a month or two for his phenom class to become a team capable of winning big.  With the likes of Michigan State, North Carolina and Florida dotting Kentucky’s non-conference schedule the tests will come early enough.  The question is, will the Wildcats be ready as soon everyone seems to think they will be?

QUICK HITTERS

Ø The college basketball season opens camp this Friday, a full forty-two days before teams are allowed to play their first games.  Under the expanded practice window, teams will have the chance to conduct thirty practices in this 42-day period.  While the NCAA’s heart is in the right place, the result is not exactly what coaches were looking for.  Several coaches I’ve talked to are ambivalent, at best, about the additional practice days.   For one, coaches wanted more time to work with their players in the summer.  Many of them would trade the additional time in September for more time in the summer.  The college basketball season is long.  Adding an extra three weeks to the front end of it not only makes it that much longer, but also puts the onus on the coaches to pace their teams through these extra practice days.  Pacing is not something coaches are always good at.  It will be interesting to see how the extra practice time affects the quality of game-play in November.

Ø The ACC is absolutely loaded this year.  This is before adding Louisville to the mix, which happens next season.  With Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Virginia the ACC has five teams that could all be in the top-15 at some point this year.  With the exception of Carolina (P.J. Hairston’s status leaves their rotation in limbo), each of these teams can conceivably go 8-9 players deep.  The Big Ten is the next best conference, with Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan all returning talented rosters, but doesn’t boast the depth the ACC will this year. 

Ø I am extremely high on Oklahoma State.  With Marcus Smart back, this is a team that returns nearly 70 points per game from last year’s team, almost 93% of production.  The X-factor for the Cowboys is Le’Bryan Nash.  Nash possesses as much talent as any player in the Big-12, but has been all over the map in terms of his attention and production.  Oklahoma State needs Nash to turn his 14ppg from last year into 18-plus, as well as rebound and defend his position.  With Markel Brown, who had a terrific summer, and Phil Forte, another shooting guard, Oklahoma State has the pieces to have a big year. 

Ø While I think a pre-season poll is the most useless, irrelevant thing since the pet rock, it is still fun to speculate.  Here’s my top 15:

          1.  Michigan State                                9.    Michigan

                2.  Louisville                                        10. North Carolina

                3.  Arizona                                            11. Kansas

                4.  Kentucky                                         12. Florida

                5.  Duke                                                 13. Oregon

                6.  Ohio State                                        14. VCU

                7.  Syracuse                                          15. Wichita State

                8.  Oklahoma State

DUKE SCRIMMAGE OBSERVATIONS

By Chris Spatola

October 10, 2013

I had a chance to sit in on a Duke intra-squad scrimmage this week.  Coach Mike Krzyzewski brought in ACC officials to officiate three 8-minute scrimmages.  While all teams at this point in the year are still a work in progress, there are a few things that will define this Duke team: they’re athletic, very deep on the perimeter, and will have the ability to give a variety of defensive looks throughout the year.  They are thin inside (Amile Jefferson started for the white team at center) and the ability to protect the paint and rebound will be points of emphasis, but Duke’s ability to defend ninety-four feet and switch screens gives them a versatility that can be tough to play against.  A few other observations:

Tendency to watch Parker and Hood play.  It’s clear the emphasis for Duke offensively will be to play through Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker.  Both are very talented and have great size relative to their skill sets.  The problem Coach K saw during spurts in all three scrimmages was the tendency of the other three guys playing with Parker and Hood to stand and watch those two operate.  Once either Parker or Hood caught the ball, the rest of the offense stagnated.  A big word for Duke offensively this year as it relates to Parker and Hood is “complement”.  A primary way to complement those two guys is to cut and screen so that the defense doesn’t have the chance to load up and stack the help-side limiting Parker and Hood’s driving opportunities.

Fouling too much.  One thing players never get a true sense of in practice is what’s a foul and what’s not.  In all three scrimmages both teams flirted with putting the other team in the bonus, and these were only 8-minute scrimmages.  Players get away with clutching and grabbing in practice that are really fouls in a game.  Since most teams don’t focus on team fouls until games are actually played, it’s easy to lose sight of how much you’re fouling.  Conversely, there were a lot of missed layups on plays with contact.  Coach K pointed out that when you miss a layup in practice with contact you might just assume you were fouled.  The officials being there for the scrimmage gave the players a true sense of how important it is to finish through contact.

Shot selection.  One reason offense is usually behind defense at this point in the season is it takes teams time to figure out what a “good” shot is.  Duke this year will try to push the tempo and play a lot of possessions, but Mike Krzyzewski doesn’t want to run at the expense of taking good shots.  Several times in their scrimmages the Blue Devils fired up contested, early shots in an attempt to play at their desired tempo.  Coach K wants to play fast, but the primary goal of every offensive possession is to still take a great shot.

QUICK HITTERS:

Ø  Andrew Wiggins is a unique talent.  He’s an incredibly strong athlete with great size.  He will be the number one pick in next spring’s draft and will have a long, productive NBA career.  Beyond that, we all need to pump the breaks on labeling Wiggins as a generational talent.  He’s not even the best high school player since Lebron James. Sports Illustrated putting him on the cover and comparing Wiggins to Kansas legends Wilt Chamberlain and Danny Manning seems, at best, premature.  Wiggins needs go from being an off-the-charts athlete to being a basketball player.  And he will.  Let’s just not coronate him before the lights come on.

Ø  Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey in addressing the media this week struck one nostalgic note with respect to Notre Dame leaving the Big East and joining the ACC. Brey told reporters “The biggest withdrawal symptom I will have in not being in the Big East is not playing at Madison Square Garden in March.”  When asked if he’ll be able to bring knowledge from his time as a Duke assistant back in the early 90’s, Brey remarked that the only head coach left in the ACC from his time in the league is his former boss Mike Krzyzewski.

Ø  Another off-season passed in which Shaka Smart “shocked” convention and decided to stay home at VCU and not pursue employment elsewhere.  While Smart’s decision to remain at VCU has been dissected from all angles, perhaps the one most often overlooked is that Smart has a pretty good team returning this year – as in top 15 good.  It was no surprise this past week that VCU was picked to win the Atlantic 10 (favored over two other quality teams in St. Louis and LaSalle).  Inconsistent at times last year, this year’s VCU team returns four of five starters.  Traveon Graham (15.1 ppg), Juvonte Reddic (14.6 ppg), and Rob Brandenberg (10.1 ppg) all averaged double-figures last year, and Briante Webber ranked fifth in the country in steals (2.7 spg).  Shaka Smart’s team this year may just be more talented than the one who reached the Final Four in 2011.